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Halter not only one taking gamble |
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010 |
Andrew DeMillo — Columnist
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) — It's fitting that the father of Arkansas' lottery would make a political gamble like this.
With his entry into the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is betting that a bid backed by liberal activists and labor unions can win in a state where President Barack Obama lost by 20 points.
He's not the only one taking a risk, however. Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln's betting that she can win a primary by shunning her own party's agenda on issues such as health care and global warming.
The stakes are high in a matchup that's likely to become the most expensive in the state's history, not to mention one of the most closely watched in the nation this year. The outcome has implications for the future of Obama's term and Democrats' hold on Congress.
It's also a test for the type of politics that's worked in states like Arkansas: Conservative Democrats reign at the state level but the national Democratic agenda doesn't.
"What you have in this race, which makes it unique, are two people who are probably two of the most underestimated political giants in our state," said Skip Rutherford, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party and the dean of the University of Arkansas' Clinton School of Public Service.
"People don't give Halter the credit he deserves for running a statewide race and passing the lottery, and everybody has already said Blanche Lincoln is in serious trouble," Rutherford said.
In the first days of the primary campaign, both candidates have shown how they hope to win. Halter's shown that the key elements to his strategy include:
— AIR WAR: Halter won two statewide races — his bid for lieutenant governor in 2006 and the lottery amendment campaign in 2008 — primarily through a media-driven campaign. Key to that were his television spots that featured his former high school football coach in selling Halter and his proposals. Halter's relying on the coach again with his first television spots, which began airing the night he filed for the Senate race. Halter's also relying on heavy coverage not just on local media, but national outlets such as MSNBC that are helping attract national dollars to his campaign.
— RUNNING AGAINST WASHINGTON: A former Clinton administration official, Halter was once a creature of Washington. But now he's casting it as the enemy, saying it's lost touch with working people in Arkansas. In his video announcing his Senate bid, Halter declares Washington "broken" and criticizes what he called special interests.
— TURNOUT: Halter's running for the Senate at one of the most chaotic points in the state's political history, with three of the four congressional seats open this year. That chaos is creating heavily contested Democratic congresional primaries in central and eastern Arkansas — parts of the state that Halter may be able to rely on for liberal to moderate votes for support.
— LOTTERY: The lottery campaign is long over, and the first scholarships won't be awarded until the fall. But that doesn't mean Halter won't tout his signature issue in the race. In his first ad, Halter uses the lottery of an example of the way he fought special interests. His candidacy also began days after the Legislature approved the amounts for the lottery-funded scholarships.
For Lincoln, the key ingredients of her own hoped-for victory are:
— RUNNING AGAINST MOVEON.ORG: Lincoln is embracing liberal activists as a foil in the race as they're embracing Halter as their candidate. Hours after Halter announced his bid, Lincoln stepped up her rhetoric portraying herself as the target of both the left and the right's extremes. Lincoln's campaign is also portraying Halter as the champion of liberal activists and bloggers, not Arkansas voters.
— FARMERS AND BUSINESSES: With the AFL-CIO's backing of Halter, Lincoln can no longer be the candidate of business and labor. But, as chairwoman of the Senate agriculture committee, she can still rely on the support of farmers. And her votes against key union priorities can be cast as votes in favor of business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which supported her 2004 re-election bid.
— GO ON THE OFFENSIVE: Lincoln's transformed from someone sitting on the sidelines hoping for a bruising Republican primary fight to a candidate engaged in her own. Her campaign has already shown it is willing to throw some punches, casting Halter as a darling of extreme liberals and a multimillionaire trying to portray himself as part of the working class.
— THE CLINTON FACTOR: Lincoln can count on the state's biggest political heavyweight, Bill Clinton. A spokesman for the 42nd president and former Arkansas governor says he'll continue to support Lincoln in her bid. In a contested primary, that may not mean him headlining fundraising or touring the state on her behalf before May. But the name alone carries plenty of weight in a state — home of his presidential library — where he remains a popular figure.
Both strategies also offer a hint of how Halter and Lincoln may run in the general election, should they win the party's nomination.
For Halter, the lottery becomes even more important as a campaign tool as the state begins issuing the first checks to students around the state. And for Lincoln, beating a candidate in a Democratic primary by opposing her party would give a boost as she tries to run against Republicans who have tried to tie her to the Obama administration.
But neither candidate's tactics answer the larger question: Will the winner come out stronger for an equally heated general election campaign in a political environment that appears to favor Republicans?
(Andrew DeMillo covers Arkansas government and politics for The Associated Press.)
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Last Updated ( Monday, 22 March 2010 )
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